Caloundra – QLD 2020

Definitely one to watch in future, This is marginal on paper but this time there probably will be a slight swing to the LNP here

@Daniel a swing to LNP with the popular McArdle retiring? I agree LNP win though.

I originally had this seat down at LNP Retain until brought to my attention by a poster on Pollbludger. With the retiring member and two consecutive swings against the LNP over the last 2 elections, I’m not as confident with this one, despite it’s history as a LNP seat forever. The reason for discussion was over the new development of areas in this electorate that could be more Labor friendly. I’d have to ask my contacts what the mood is like up there.

Prediction (August 2020): TOSS-UP – LNP Lean

This is most definitely a toss up and I’m by no means confident of an LNP retain.

Labor have this firmly in their sights. I’m also not sure the LNP have preselected a candidate that’s dynamic enough to hold this marginal seat. One to watch.

September prediction: LNP retain but not easy. This seat would have gone close to a Labor win if McArdle had not run at the last election….Hunt was leading on election night but as was expected fell short as the count progressed. Hunt is actually quite a liked guy, very active during the Woodford Prison strikes. Not so sure the LNP candidate is great either. However, I’m sticking with LNP retain as I know the area and I feel that ultra right wing Christian group will sway a few people to put Labor last on their HTV due to a few social issues. They did last time and very effectively in the neighboring Glass House.

If the LNP chose a good candidate then this should have been a retain. I think they chose poorly and the seat is at threat.

Agree with the consensus above. The only thing saving the LNP in Caloundra is the Pelican Waters development, which has poured thousands of conservative-leaning retirees into the seat. Caloundra is different to much of the Sunshine Coast and has a higher stock of affordable housing than neighboring areas to the north. This election may not be the right environment for Labor but its still one to watch.

Upon reviewing this seat, I know this one will be close and there are 6 candidates running here so far. Sunny Coast is UAP territory but their vote will just flow to the LNP, as will most of ONP. But I just can’t see where they steal votes without affecting the LNP primary. It’ll be the preferences that save LNP here but definitely one to watch, and into next election, with changing demographics.

Prediction (September 2020): LNP Retain [change from TOSS-UP LNP Lean]

In Play now, seeing the new poll, LNP supporters. check the latest poll 52-48 to Labor statewide. Oops. Looking forward to seeing Tories and SloMo cry this Halloween Mwhahahaha. Caloundra may not fall but it will be very close.

Yeah Daniel, today’s poll was not so great but its a point in time – there is many points left, its not over yet.

Daniel,

It’s that sort of arrogance which cost Labor last year’s federal election.

Let’s remember your track record on predictions ain’t so flash either…

Daniel
Poll in yesterday’s Courier Mail was not good news for either major party. Libs must be regretting not dumping Frecklington when they had opportunity. She had a Very low popularity rating but many who dislike her will still vote Liberal.
52:48 is more likely to lead to Katter or Greens having balance of power. The assumption that Palmer will do
Nothing but deliver dissatisfied Liberal voters back to Liberal party is potentially disastrous for LNP. Green and Palmer voters have little choice but to go back to ALP and LNP respectively. Katter voters are far less predictable. I for instance may be working a booth for Katter in Warrego but will be voting ALP in Bancroft.
I certainly will be ignoring any HTV instruction to put extremists like PHON and Greens anywhere but last. Neither have a plan that will benefit humans in Queensland.

Caloundra was originally Landsborough but Landsborough included a lot of hinterland.
Maleny was part of Landsborough and at that time it was more rural than it is today.
As urban population of Caloundra grew the seat moved coast -wards. Landsborough Shire Council was cut up and majority of electorate became part of Sunshine Coast City Council.

Wreathy – Daniel and Mick Quinlivan have a competition after every election, as to who can eat the most amount of ALP humble pie. Mick is still in front by a spoonful.

I wouldn’t trust the TPP as its assuming preference flows off last elections results when One Nation directed against sitting members which handed Mansfield, Aspley and Redlands to Labor.

Also its assuming One Nation and Katter run in all seats and factoring it into the TPP. That clearly won’t happen and I’D be especially cautious about their regional breakdowns of TPP.

I’d be looking at the primary votes mainly from the poll.

Further to the points made above…

Everything about that poll is odd. LNP doing poorly on the coast with a hefty 2PP swing away from them – a region that is beyond suffering due to border closures. On the other hand, LNP getting a swing towards them in Brisbane where you’d think lockdowns would play better.

I think this will very much be a seat-by-seat battle and the regional breakdown will be far more important than the statewide 2PP figure.

Predicting election results is either stating obvious ( LNP will win Groom by election) or a stab in dark ( ALP will eventually win Caloundra) in the case of the latter I look to Tallyroom to tell me why. I do not really want to hear “who” and certainly not who has it wrong with absolutely no reasons “why”.

Daniel
Did you see You-Gov poll in today’s Courier Mail (Wed 7 Oct) showing that Palaszczuk ‘a “dominance on critical question of the economy extends to every region of state”.
Has there ever been any other Coalition leader who has been seen as less competent than an ALP leader?
I think this is first for That neither leader would
My feeling is that her nightly attacks on Palaszczuk have reached the point where they lose LNP votes every time she appears on TV.

The revelation that neither leader would say what would happen if electorate chose to elect a hung Parliament.

Last nights ABC News asks each of them 3 questions not one of these questions was answered. The questions were probing and both used same tactic just mouthing an election slogan.
TV stations on every occasion should just play question and a comment regrettably Question was not answered.

Moderate you do not understand……. many many seats are competitive…. but the next step to pick the winner is where I erred…. maybe it is a t+1 or t+2 factor. I would expect the lnp to retain as labor has never won this seat despite close misses. but then I would not have picked an independent to win Noosa IN 2017.
I have not made any predictions in QLd seats …… but the least likely result is a Lnp absolute majority.
Qld post 1989 is like vic post 1999 the norm of an Alp govt with series of 1 term lnp govts

Thanks Mick – I reckon I understand perfectly!!

The Premier was campaigning here the other daywhich is telling and has caught Freckles and the LNP off guard as their internal polling is showing they can pick up seats in the SE rather than sandbag their own if a swing was on.

While I think it will stay in LNP hands, especially with its large retiree population, it will be one to watch on the night and may seem to be won but prepolls and postals bring it back to the LNP, it has signalled from here on in the LNP is in trouble.

Labor polling points to a very close result and they are quietly confident.

Ok final prediction time – LNP retain but only by a whisker.

Prediction: LNP Retain

Total toss up,but I am going ALP gain but with no confidence.

Again I am pretty much with QO. ALP gain but very, very close

If Labor pulls this one off, and I’m not convinced they can get that last little bit they need, then they are winning the election with a majority.

I know this seat reasonably well, as there is 32 members (an exact number) of the extended Surfgod family who live in this seat. What should be a safe LNP seat, with all the old conversative voters in Caloundra, may well fall to Labour tonight. Both the Labour and LNP candidates are considered plodders, and the LNP candidate apparently has baggage and is disliked. I know the Green candidate in this seat, and she has worked overtime and ran a good campaign, and she could lift her primary vote from 10% at the last election to 15-16% this time, and with the likely 75% preference flow to Labour from the Greens, this seat could be a Labour gain. The Covid issue plays bigtime with the old voters and I known almost all the elderly great aunts/uncles/cousins/2nd cousins from the Surfgod family, will vote Labour this time, some for the first time, as they believe that the closed borders to NSW, has saved Caloundra from be destroyed by Covid.

I can see Labour winning Caloundra tonight.

Cmon Caloundra don’t be Cowardice by voting a Coward in office who agrees with Palmer with this so called Death tax.